Calling the top of the NASDAQ rally
In 2020 tech stocks have done amazingly well.
That said this has turned into full on euphoria lately, I've had many conversations that make me think this is a massive bubble. People who have no interest or knowledge about stocks have asked me about buying Apple stocks and Tesla stocks lately. These expressions of interest in a stock market "that only can go up" are now coming from a broader crowd and is far more than just the Robinhood crowd shenanigans. People who are otherwise completely uninvolved in the equity markets have been asking me how to go about buying Tesla stocks. In this regard Tesla splitting the stock is a brilliant move to target the euphoric masses, looking to do an at market .
Speaking of the retail trading crowd, retail traders tend to get options horrendously wrong on average and betting against the retail traders options positions tends to be an amazing way to make money. Recently there was an absurd amount of call options on many of the "big name" stocks. This might be reversing quickly soon as people start to panic.
For this and many other reasons I'm not going to get into in this quick post I'm calling this the top of the NASDAQ in real terms.
I might look like an idiot later but I feel like going on the record as calling it.
One slight caveat to all this is that I think this is the top in real terms, in nominal terms or in terms of the index numbers (especially ones tha are not equal weighted) we could see things go higher. With the Fed talking about abandoning the 2% inflation target this means the stock market will have extremely strong pressure to go up in nominal terms even if things are stagnant in real terms. If there's enough inflation I worry that more parabolic gains won't be real gains but rather like the gains seen in the Zimbabwe stock market during their inflationary episode: